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In China the stock market, investors initially to retail investors, the speculative atmosphere is relatively heavy, caused the sharp fluctuations in the market, did not play the role of social resource allocation optimization. In order to reduce the market fluctuation, regulatory considerations into development to securities investment funds on behalf of the institutional investors, securities investment funds can hope that by virtue of their own professional advantage, capital and information three, to the value of the investment and the introduction of the concept of rational investment market, seek the return value, reduces the stock market volatility, the stability of the stock market, so that securities market to better serve for hypostatic economy, this is the financial supervision of vigorously developing securities investment fund 's original purpose. With securities investment fund large-scale market, market volatility is it right? Reduces? This article mainly from the securities investment fund positions, behavior and fluctuation of stock price an empirical study on the relationship between the conclusion of the article, hope to the healthy and continuous development of China's securities market provides some reference suggestions, have very real direct sense.In this paper, firstly the related study on this issue from both theoretical and empirical perspectives are reviewed, understood at present to this problem did not draw the same conclusion, debate is still ongoing. Then on the securities investment fund transactions appear short-sighted behavior, herding effect, positive feedback trading strategy as well as the manipulation of a series of theory are discussed, based on the above theoretical analysis, pointed out that securities investment fund positions on the medium and small investors have a detrimental effect, did not play a stabilizing role of the market. Combined with the actual situation of our securities business, respectively, considering the blue-chip market and small and medium-sized market shares characteristics, as well as the investor's risk preference, a careful analysis of the securities investment fund in China s stock market in the role, respectively, put forward overall hypothesis: our funds behavior did not play a stabilizing role of the market and the individual two hypotheses: fund holding blue chips to stabilize stock price effects, but with small and medium-sized stock market but increase the volatility of stock price.In this paper, the whole proposed hypotheses, using time series data to test empirically, by regression analysis method, by using the method of least squares to draw the correlation coefficient, the results showed that all the fund positions, behavior and stock market overall fluctuation shows a positive correlation, and have a certain significance, but was not very strong, description market with the proportion of funds holdings will rise or fall there will be a certain degree of up or down. For the individual on the proposed hypothesis, respectively for the blue-chip market and small and medium-sized market shares of the empirical testing, using panel data regression, the fund holds the blue-chip did not exacerbate volatility, reached a stable stock price fluctuations, but to fund small and medium-sized stock market and the volatility of the test results showed that, the fund shareholders and small and medium-sized stock market price fluctuations showed a strong positive correlation, but also significantly stronger. According to the overall analysis, description of funds behavior overall did not play a stabilizing role of the market, because the fund positions blue-chip although stabilize stock price effect, but the fund in the small and medium-sized market on the stock holdings increased the volatility of stock price. Therefore, the empirical results support the proposed hypothesis based on theoretical analysis.Based on the analysis and testing results, combined with the actual situation of our securities business, this paper suggests the need for further improvement of the stock market system condition and zoology environment, change of securities investment funds of the current evaluation methods and evaluation indicators, to further strengthen market supervision, improve the information disclosure system, improve the quality of listed companies and operating performance of a series of policies and suggestions, hoping to provide some reference and guidance.
影响股票价格的因素:
经济因素(The economy factor)、政治因素(The political factor)、公司自身因素(The corporate governance factor)、行业因素(The trade trend factor)、市场因素(The market factor)、心理因素(The psychological factor)
1.经济因素: 经济周期,国家的财政状?况,金融环境,国际收支状况,行业经济地位的变化,国家汇率的调整,都会影响股价。
2.政治因素: 国家的政策调整或改变,***更迭,国际政治改变,大国政权转移,国际战争,劳资纠纷甚至罢工风潮等都也会导致股价波动。
3.公司自身因素: 股票自身价值是决定股价最基本的因素,而这主要取决于发行公司的经营业绩、资信水平以及连带的股息红利派发状况、发展前景、股票预期收益水平等。
4. 行业因素: 国民经济中行业地位的变更,行业的发展前景和发展潜力,新兴行业引来的冲击,上市公司在行业中所处的位置,经营业绩,经营状况,资金组合的改变及领导层人事变动等都会影响相关股票的价格。
5.市场因素: 投资者的动向,大户的意向和操纵,公司间的合作或相互持股,信用交易和期货交易的增减,投机者的套利行为,公司的增资方式和增资额度等,都会影响股价。
6.?心理因素:在自己毫不了解市场行情及股票情况的状况下,盲目依从他人跟风操作和追涨杀跌;预期未来股价走势;倾向于某一类或某几种自己喜欢或经常做的股票。?
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